For the last year or so, I have seen very little in the way of promising sales statistics in the Mission Hills luxury real estate market. Concurrently, I have had little success with buyer showings in this price range – very little is selling. Why?

Sellers and buyers don’t agree on what the homes are worth.

Here’s a few stats for homes in Mission Hills (zip 92103) over $1.4million as of Oct 5th:

- 26 homes for sale
- 3 homes pending
- 2 homes sold (all year)
- 22 Expired listings
- 8 Cancelled listings

If we look at 2008, we find 12 total sales in this price range, but note that half of them were in the $1.4-1.5 range. In 2007, we find 19 total sales in this price range. We are experiencing about a 50% decline in sales year over year since 2007. To view active homes, visit my Mission Hills real estate site.

These stats speak for themselves. What is happening is that most sellers don’t “need” to sell and buyers don’t agree with the price the seller is “hoping” for. If we examine the 3 pending and 2 sold homes from this year, we find that 2 of them were bank owned (must sell), 1 is a trust sale (must sell), 1 was a developer’s flip (must sell) and only 1 appears to be a regular sale.

We have seen less than a handful of foreclosures and short-sales in the Mission Hills luxury homes market. In other markets, it has been this steady inventory of must sell homes that have driven prices down. I expect we will start to see a few more foreclosures and short-sales in this price range due to the lack of buyer demand that is causing prices to drop. My prediction is that it will be these ‘must sell’ homes like foreclosures, short-sales, trust sales, divorce sales, etc. that are going to be the bulk of sales in this price range over the next 6-12 months. These sales will, therefore, drive home values in Mission Hills over the next year.

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Adam Pascu
Team 73 Degrees
Keller Williams Realty
858.761.1707